USDA dairy predictions down

By Jim Cornall contact

- Last updated on GMT

The forecast for US dairy exports has been revised downward. Photo: iStock - taspencer
The forecast for US dairy exports has been revised downward. Photo: iStock - taspencer

Related tags: Dairy exports, International trade, Future

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade has been published, and it forecasts agricultural exports in FY 2016 at $125bn, $6.5bn below the November projection and $14.7bn below FY 2015 exports.

The prediction for dairy exports has been reduced by $700m to $4.9bn, as exporters face weak import demand, low prices, and strong competition from the EU.

In 2015, dairy exports were worth $5.562bn.

Lower prices, strong competition, and reduced demand are cited as the reasons for most of the decline.

No change for cheese

The USDA outlook states that in Asia, dairy exports are expected to decline in China, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Export values are also expected to decline for dairy to Mexico.

Imports of dairy products reached $3.488bn in 2015, and the November 2015 forecast for 2016 was $3.5bn, however, this has now been adjusted to $3.4bn. For cheese, the forecast of $1.4bn remains unchanged, up slightly from the value of cheese imported in 2015, which was $1.314bn.

Related topics: Markets, Pricing Pressures, Fresh Milk, Cheese

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