Fresh dairy consumption showed the most notable growth out of all commodities measured, hitting a record high per capita consumption rate in developing countries.
“Projected growth rates for fresh dairy for the coming decade are higher than those experienced over the past ten years, driven by increasing per capita demand in developing countries, most notably India,” the report stated.
The world’s population will increase from 7.3bn to 8.2bn over the nine-year period, with India accounting for 56% of that growth, overtaking China as the world’s most populous country, according to the report.
This growth is the driving factor behind the increase of milk production in India and accounts for the increased demand for fresh dairy products (54%).
By contrast, per capita consumption of fresh dairy products will remain much lower in China and in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as many developed markets.
Processed dairy consumption and trade contracts
Despite renewed interest in consumption of butter and dairy fat in developed countries and more positive health assessments of dairy fat in recent years, the growth in global consumption of processed dairy products is expected to slow down in the next decade to 1.7% annually.
Over the course of the outlook period, the production of processed dairy products is expected to grow between 1.4% per year for cheese and 2.3% annually for skim milk powder (SMP). While the bulk of production of SMP and cheese will occur in developed countries, India will remain the top producer of butter, however it will not be a top player in the export market.
Processed dairy products per capita consumption will remain much lower in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) and Asia in particular, the report predicted.
“Trade of fresh dairy products will remain limited and, as a result, growth in consumption will have a limited impact on world dairy markets,” the report said.
However, overall, agricultural commodities tend to be the more resilient to economic fluctuations and as a result milk powders remain the most traded agricultural commodities and fresh dairy products will continue to be among the least traded.