US cheese consumption is at record levels, with more than 42lb (19kg) per capita consumed in 2023 alone, according to the latest annual USDA data.
Back then, American cheese and cottage cheese led growth, while European varieties like Swiss and Gouda were in decline. But tables may be turning in 2025, Circana sales data suggests.
In the year to date, US cheese sales have continued to grow. Natural and processed dairy case cheese is up 2% in dollar terms but flat in terms of volume; and deli specialty cheese sales have shot up 8% in both volume and dollar terms.
But American cheese is in decline while continental cheeses like Gouda are enjoying a resurgence.
“American cheese is struggling,” said Melissa Altobelli, SVP, Client Insights, Dairy and Bakery at the Chicago-based market insights agency. “Sales are down nearly 5% year-to-date, while mozzarella, colby jack, cheddar and European-style cheeses like Gouda and Havarti are showing strong growth.”
US consumers’ everyday cheese needs are generally fulfilled by the dairy case section – think mozzarella, colby jack and cheddar – or the sliced cheese deli counter. Shoppers seeking something more unusual head to the specialty cheese section – and that’s where the company sees stronger growth.
“Deli specialty is up 8% for both dollars and volume in 2025,” Altobelli told us. “Leading the growth are Hispanic and Italian cheese types, though the specialty set is highly fragmented by cheese varieties.
“Topping and melting cheeses lead the way for Hispanic cheese types, including queso fresco, chihuahua and cotija. Parmesan, mozzarella, burrata and romano are key growth drivers amongst the Italian varieties.
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Natural cheese is one of the top 3 dairy categories for Gen Z from a dollar sales perspective, Circana told us. Cottage cheese continues to be among the two fastest-growing dairy categories for this cohort.
“In terms of artisanal cheeses, American consumers favor goat cheese; while brie, blue cheese and havarti have slowed in 2025.”
What’s driving this uptick in deli specialty cheese sales? “The whole deli area is showing strong growth, and that’s really because consumers are purchasing what they need when they need it,” Circana’s Altobelli said. “They’re eating out less, so they want to have more restaurant-like experiences at home.”
As for why American cheese sales have stalled, that’s also related to demand for exciting flavors. “I think part of it is the nature of consumers wanting that restaurant-like experience at home,” she added. “They want something different and unique – a fun flavor rather than just American cheese.” The same logic applies to growing demand for premium buns like brioche and Hawaiian, she added.
Another reason why American cheese’s recent struggles could be explained with being a processed rather than natural product. But producers are already working on addressing that, Altobelli told us.
“American cheese is experimenting with new product formulations and formats, i.e. natural American cheese sliced line at the start of 2025 or 8oz bricks for easy melting, whether in dips or favorite cooking recipes,” she said.
Innovation is also happening in specialty cheese. “There are always new brands and products as discovery is a built-in expectation,” Altobelli said.
Innovation themes also focus on flavors and textures, experiential and authenticity. “There is far more storytelling, bringing the consumer on a journey about the origins of the product and how that journey continues to their table.”
And let’s not forget shredded cheese. “Seasonings in shredded cheese bring new flavor experiences beyond what can be achieved with cheese blends,” Altobelli explained.
Cottage cheese: Still a trendy superfood
It’s been two years since cottage cheese became a TikTok sensation – and well into 2025, the category keeps on growing.
Volume growth has been accelerating, up 15% YTD according to Circana. All major brands have experienced double-digit growth in the last year, the market research company revealed, with plain cottage cheese still forming the bulk of the category and driving the most growth.
“Consumers are mixing plain cottage cheese with other ingredients at home to create fun and unique flavor experiences,” Altobelli told us.
Savory flavors are commanding higher growth in the category and there’s runway to grow volumes, too.
According to Circana, fruit-flavored cottage cheese accounts for 6% of volume sales and is up 5% in sales and the last year – but herb and spice-flavored cottage cheese accounts for only 1% of volume with 13% growth.
“Fruit-flavored cottage cheese is where we’re seeing some new entries from competitors,” Altobelli said.
“Innovation comes from line extensions typically versus new brands to the category,” Altobelli said. “In 2024, innovation came from new flavor line extensions in single serve format.”
