Greece has lost around 5% of its sheep and goat herd to a highly infectious disease – but this small number may have big implications for the global cheese market.
Around 80% of Greece’s sheep and goat milk is used to make feta, and 65% of Greek feta is exported globally each year. The cheese – considered Greece’s ‘white gold’ – generated some €785m/$913m in exports in 2024 alone.
A shortage of sheep and goat milk would not only impact Greece’s agricultural income: it could hit the global availability of authentic Greek feta.
What’s happening?
Around 420,000 sheep and goats have been culled since August 2024 as the Greek authorities try to curb an ongoing outbreak of sheep pox and goat pox (SPGP).
The disease is caused by a virus that’s spread through close contact between sick and healthy animals, by biting insects or through aerosols and is highly contagious, meaning that a single instance of illness requires an entire herd to be culled. SPGP only transmits to animals and not humans.
The virus is difficult to eradicate once in the environment, too. It can remain ‘live’ in wool for two months and survive on infected premises for up to six months, meaning that producers need to maintain stringent biosecurity protocols to ensure their premises are SPGP-free.
There is no cure for sheep and goat pox but a vaccine exists. However, vaccinating animals would restrict trade for significant periods since vaccinated animals and their products including milk are banned from being exported until strict conditions and recovery periods.
In Greece, the outbreak started in August 2024 and the number of culled animals was under 100,000 by April 2025. Cases increased in recent months as the disease spread south to the key sheep and goat farming region of Thessaly and beyond.
In Thessaly, over 160,000 animals have been culled, costing the region around €500m, a third of its agricultural income. Thessaly produces nearly half of Greece’s soft cheese, of which 70% is feta.
Is a feta shortage on the horizon?
Despite the culling, production of sheep and goat milk has remained healthy throughout the outbreak. This is in large part because not all culled animals were part of the country’s milk pool, we were told.
A spokesperson for the European Dairy Association said: “Although the situation is serious, not all of these animals are a part of the dairy sector. This year, the industry has had the same level of production compared to the relevant period of 2024. So for the time being, the effect on the produced raw material for the PGI products has not been so significant as first thought.”
However, this could change. “Should the situation continue and worsen, Greece will face a shortage of the raw materials used to produce most PGI products in Greece. Since a significant part of cheese production and especially feta cheese is exported, this will affect the ability to fulfil the needs of the market.
“The upcoming winter will be a very good opportunity to take the necessary measures to significantly reduce the outbreak, if not eliminate it completely. If this do not happen, there will be a bigger impact on the production of milk.”
Demand for authentic feta globally is rising. According to Allied Market Research, the PDO feta cheese market is projected to reach $662.3m by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%.
If milk supplies get tight and impact production, this is likely to push up the price of feta – and it’s already an expensive product.
In the US, feta costs around $20 per kilogram. It ranked fifth by dollar sales with $504m generated by mid-2025: a result topped only by American cheese ($513m), parmesan ($579m), cheddar ($659m) and mozzarella ($821m), according to Circana data covering the 52 weeks ending July 6 2025.
How is Greece handling the outbreak?
Greece has ramped up containment efforts more recently by increasing veterinary inspections, adding disinfection points and controlling vehicle access to farms.
Restrictions on the movement of animals is also in place in affected regions.
The Greek Dairy Industries Association is in close contact with ministers as industry and government jointly hash out solutions, we learned.
