Investment bank UBS estimates that 40 million people will use GLP‑1 medications globally by 2029, with roughly 18 million users in the US alone.
The US market has the largest user base today, with around one in eight Americans taking weight-loss drugs. In comparison, only around 4.1% of UK households do so, and Europe is still in the very early stages of adoption.
But already it’s clear to see that widespread uptake isn’t necessary to impact the food and beverage industry. Portion sizes are being redesigned; nutrient density is increasingly important; and snacking and indulgence items are being packaged as ‘permissible’ and satiety supporting.
Dairy has largely benefited from the weight management trend: yogurt sales are booming, fermented dairy beverages such as drinking yogurt and kefir are in high demand, and protein-packed dairy in various formats is flying off the shelves. Even traditional categories such as cottage cheese have been thrown into the limelight on the back of their natural low-fat, high-protein credentials.
But high-fat categories such as cheese, ice cream and butter are more exposed to trend headwinds. According to a 2025 Cornell University and Numerator study, households in which there’s at least one GLP-1 user spend around 6% less on butter; around 7% less on cheese, and around 5% less on cream.
The uptake of GLP-1 medications has nearly doubled in the US in the past year – growing from under 6% in September 2025 to more than 12% towards the end of 2025. Usage is only set to grow: but on this backdrop, how resilient do high-fat dairy categories look?
What’s the appetite for butter, cheese and ice cream?
The latest annual dairy sales data published by the USDA paints an upbeat picture of consumer appetite for high-fat dairy.
In 2024, Americans consumed record-breaking amounts of butter - 6.8 pounds per person – while cheese consumption, which hit its highest level a year before, remained flat at 41.9 pounds. Appetite for ice cream was also more than healthy, having notched up in the year to 12 pounds per person.
Growth across categories couldn’t match that of yogurt – where consumption rose 6% YoY to 14.5 pounds – but the data is clear that in a year where GLP-1 drugs were being used by around six million Americans, appetite for high-fat dairy only increased.
How else can the industry offset GLP-1’s impact?
While appetite for high-fat dairy appears healthy, manufacturers shouldn’t rest on this insight alone. Innovation and premiumisation can help elevate these categories further – and that strategy applies to small and artisanal producers, too.
Take premium butter, for example. Vermont-based Animal Farm Creamery has taken the culinary world by storm with its Jersey cow’s milk cultured butter that’s selling for $60 per pound and available once a week at a local cheesemonger. It is made of hand-skimmed Jersey cow’s milk, cultured for 24 hours with buttermilk as a starter and hand-churned and kneaded to achieve the freshest taste and texture.
And at the grocery store, US sales of high-end butter are outpacing everyday brands, according to NielsenIQ data. Super premium brands are up 13.7% year over year (while costing nearly double the average price) and premium butter is up 24.2% (while costing 1.25 times more than the average-priced butter).
In fact, mainstream brands have remained largely flat (1.1% YoY sales), outpaced by both value (4.3%) and private label (7.8%) propositions.
Premiumisation as a pressure valve
The pandemic pushed butter back into everyday use not just in the US, but also globally; and today, interest in premium products fuels permissible indulgence and culinary experimentation.
The same logic applies to cheese: in a consumer environment where budgets remain tight, shoppers may be more willing to shell out for a higher-quality product.
Access to GLP‑1 medications today remains closely linked to income levels and insurance coverage. While this does not exclude lower‑income consumers, the current user base is more affluent – which supports continued innovation in premium food and beverage segments.
USDA’s dairy consumption trends data provides a useful snapshot of sales patterns and demand: but as GLP-1 drug use is only set to expand, growth across high-fat dairy categories will increasingly depend on innovation, premiumisation, and clear points of differentiation.
