The latest data from the AHDB revealed that daily deliveries in October averaged 33.97 million (m) litres/day, with a maximum of 34.42 m litres and a minimum of 33.21 m litres. Total milk deliveries for October reached 1,053.24 m litres, a 4% reduction on 2025 deliveries but still 1% ahead of the 5-year average.
However, this brings year to date (1 April - 31 October) deliveries to 7,450.18 m litres, which stands 3.X% lower than the volumes delivered year-on-year.
AHDB said that falling milk prices, combined with rising input costs, have continued to squeeze producer margins.
It also highlighted the ongoing disruption to global feed supply chains as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside continued instability in the Middle East, which has added further pressure through higher energy, fuel and fertiliser costs.
Bluetongue also continues to impact production, although anecdotal evidence suggests vaccine uptake among dairy producers has been strong, AHDB said.
There are also domestic challenges with a summer characterised by prolonged dry conditions, which has reduced forage availability and driven up both straw and forage prices across many regions.
Favourable growing conditions in the spring supported strong grass growth and generally good yields and quality from first-cut silage. However, the hot, dry summer placed pressure on forage supplies, raising concerns over winter feed availability. More recently, the mild and relatively dry autumn has allowed silage making to continue into October and November.
While this may help replenish forage stocks, the nutritional quality of these later cuts is likely to be more variable than those harvested earlier in the season. The ‘super El Nino’ may add additional pressure to feed prices, as well as potentially affecting global milk supply with changing weather patterns.
AHDB’s forecast for the 2026/27 milk year is for supplies to reach 12.74m litres, a drop of 284m litres compared to the previous year or 2.2%.
