Its paper called “Europe’s dairy comfort zone is moving” estimates that annual heat-related milk losses across Europe could rise from around 4.5 million metric tonnes in today’s climate to around 12.5 million metric tonnes by 2050 under a global warming scenario.
EU farms produced 159 million metric tonnes of raw milk in 2025, with current heat-related losses equivalent to 2.8% of output, while future losses would be around 7.5%, it said.
A major challenge is that cows with a higher-milk yields are more vulnerable to heat stress, while certain breeds can tolerate higher levels of heat and humidity, meaning the impact differs across Europe’s dairy regions.
While rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are reshaping environmental conditions, Rabobank said it is unlikely to displace dairy production but may impact on competitiveness.
Europe’s leading dairy regions, including Ireland, the Netherlands, northern France, Germany, Poland and Denmark have historically benefitted from limited exposure to heat stress. But they will face growing pressure on cow welfare, milk yields and the reliability of milk supply, Rabobank said
While the major production centres in northern Italy, southern Germany, France and Spain face a marked increase in potential milk losses, which could lead to costly adaptation strategies in an industry that is already under pressure globally because of the high price of production in the EU.
However, Rabobank said climate adaptation could limit the impact.
It said that farmers need to strengthen cooling, feeding and herd-management strategies, while processors need to support investment on farms and build flexibility into sourcing, infrastructure and operations.
Rabobank pointed to farmers in Israel and Saudi Arabia who have been able to adapt and increase production in hotter environments. It also suggested that processors can encourage climate-resilient farming through technical assistance, knowledge sharing, financial incentives as well as having greater flexibility in sourcing and processing.
Tom Booijink, Senior Dairy Specialist Europe & Africa said: “The biggest impact of heat stress is not just lower milk production per cow. As extreme heat becomes more frequent, milk supply to dairy processors will also become less predictable. That could lead to underutilised processing capacity and higher costs, turning climate change into a competitiveness issue for the European dairy industry.”
He added: “In Greece, dairy farmers have already adapted by shifting milk production away from the hottest summer months to reduce heat stress on their cows. As temperatures rise, we are gradually seeing this pattern extend further north in Europe.
“Parmigiano Reggiano can only be produced in a specific area of northern Italy. So if heat stress increasingly affects milk production there, you cannot simply move production to a cooler part of Europe.”
