US farmers 'slightly more confident' on ag economy despite ongoing volatility

The Index of Current Conditions rose 5 points to a reading of 121, while the Index of Future Expectations was up one point to 124. Meanwhile, July’s Farm Capital Investment Index also rose 3 points to a reading of 45, and up 14 points since bottoming out in November 2022. Compared to that period, the percentage of producers saying now is a good time for large investments has improved from 10% who felt that way in November to 17% in July this year.

Fewer farmers felt it was a bad time to invest, down from 79% in November last year to 72% this July but higher input costs remains the top concern in the upcoming year for respondents.

James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, said the improvement in the investment index was particularly notable as it occurred at a time when more producers expect interest rates to rise (65% vs 57% in June). 

The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained unchanged in July at a reading of 151 while the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined just one point to 125. The Farm Financial Conditions Index rose just one point to a reading of 87, though the percentage of farmers expecting bad times in the long term improved by 2% in July.

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.