EU membership enhances food production potential

This contention is forcefully argued within the EC's prospects for agricultural markets and income 2004-2011 and the impact of enlargement.​ The document predicts that the medium-term outlook for the EU cereals, meat and dairy markets appear positive thanks to the CAP reform and favourable world market conditions.

The central premise of the document is that EU membership is vital to the future of Europe's food production. As compared to 2003, the last year before membership, agricultural income per fulltime employed in the new Member States is predicted to double by 2011.

Without membership, however, the EC predicts that agricultural income would decrease from 2006 onwards.

In addition, the European meat sector is seen to have normalised after the extreme market conditions due to the second BSE scare, the FMD outbreak in 2001 and the avian flu in 2003. The current situation in the beef market - where consumption is higher than domestic production - is expected to persist over the 2004-2011 period.

Pig and poultry production and consumption are expected to keep growing over the medium term, with increased trade flows between the new and old Member States.

Similarly, the EU dairy sector is also foreseen to display a gradual improvement after the recent imbalance, with increasing cheese production and consumption and, at the same time, lower availability of butter and skimmed milk powder.

Within the cereals sector however, barley has continued to lose competitiveness in comparison to soft wheat and maize. Domestic cereals use stagnates over the medium term due to a less expansive livestock sector and gains in feeding efficiency in many new Member States.

Stock levels are projected to increase but remain on a moderate level over the medium term.

Overall, agricultural trade within the EU-25 is likely to further expand, in particular when some regional constraints as regards transport costs are overcome. Market situations appear overall positive and agricultural income is projected to increase further.

The EC document is designed to provide a picture of the likely developments of agricultural markets up to 2011, based on a certain number of assumptions and information available end of October 2004.

The publication contains three chapters. The first chapter centres on the market prospects by the year 2011 within the EU and covers the following products: cereals, oilseeds, meat milk and the dairy products as well as the medium term development of agricultural income.

Chapter II analyses the prospects of agricultural markets and income in the new Member States by comparing it with the hypothetical developments under a non-accession scenario. Finally, a presentation of the medium to long-term prospects of agricultural markets, as established by several international organisations and institutes, is given in chapter III.